The Treasury Market May Not Be Breaking... It May Be Searching for a New Price
Why 5% yields, record equities, fading foreign demand and the AI capital boom may all be part of the same feedback loop.
When AI Eats Alpha
AI agents won't just automate investing. They may systematically eliminate the easy returns created by slow analysis, poor execution, emotional decisions, and market friction — just as a heavily indebted system becomes less able to tolerate mispricing.
Where the Displaced Return Goes
If AI compresses the return that used to accrue to skill, that return does not evaporate on contact. It has an incidence — and three of its four destinations are unreachable by the person who used to collect it.
Dollars Are for Using. Gold Is for Holding.
The private issuer, the sovereign, and the reserve manager reached the same conclusion about the dollar system from three different directions. The GENIUS Act wrote half of it into law and made the other half illegal.
Every Fix for a Stablecoin Run Ends at the Fed
The design space for making digital dollars run-proof is small, and every exit from it leads to a public balance sheet standing behind private money.
The Next Run on the Bank Won't Look Like a Bank Run
Stablecoins may solve America's Treasury-demand problem. In doing so, they could build the architecture for the next liquidity crisis.
The Boom Is the Fuse
A productivity boom and a classic credit crisis are not competing forecasts. They can be two sides of one event — and the boom can be part of the mechanism that produces the collapse.
Two Clocks, Both Running Backwards
Lennar handed back roughly $55,000 a home. A meaningful share of the correction has already happened off the index, where the measurement apparatus was never built to see it.
Hold Every Hour
You are not going to die one day. You have been dying the whole time, and most of it is already behind you.
Nobody Is Positioned to Know
AGI recognition is observer-relative. AGI is not. An unobservable arrival is still an arrival — and the one regulator that had to write a threshold into law ended up counting electricity.
Nobody Wants to Go Back Down
Let me show you in a picture how far our nature is enlightened, or unenlightened — and then let me ask what we owe the people still sitting in the dark.
Nature Did Not Get Careless About the Last Act
You two seem surprised that I carry my years lightly. So let me take the four charges people bring against old age, and show you that not one of them holds.
Poetry Is Truer Than History
I want to take the thing apart and show you how it works — starting with why we enjoy looking hard at what we could not bear to see.
The Random Board
Same model, unequal minds. Expertise was never more memory or faster calculation — it is a better representation, and AI raises the return on already having one.
Tokens Are the New Clicks
The agentic inference-efficiency paradox, and what it does to the capex thesis.
The Travel Time Collapsed
A 1976 foraging model explains why the rational threshold for abandoning a software project just moved — and why that edge expires.
The Org Chart Ships
Conway's Law was never about org charts. It was about the price of a conversation — and that price just changed.
The Room Scales
What the threatened coworker was always going to teach us about agents — and the one auditing test that does not degrade as they get smarter.
The Trap
Some of what warming gives, it gives only long enough to take back.
Twenty-Four Times a Year
Does repeated platelet donation produce systemic health benefit through hematopoietic renewal? Blood centers have run the experiment for four decades and never asked.
The Debt
The most dangerous climate signal is the one that feels like safety.
The Filter
Life finds a way. That is not the reassurance you think it is.
The Cell That Stopped Transmitting
The trait that best predicts cellular longevity is cell-cycle exit. Which means the safest rejuvenation may be the one that resets a cell and then permanently forbids it descendants.
Dig Deeper — Interactive
Read moreSet the Fed funds rate, breakeven inflation, hyperscaler capex and issuance plus more
Strikeline Try it From: The Treasury Market May Not Be Breaking... It May Be Searching for a New PriceSet the adoption curve and the decay rate, then watch how long the market takes
Strikeline Try it From: When AI Eats AlphaBuild the stablecoin boom. Then pull the cash out and watch how it holds the Treasury market together.
MarketAlly Try it From: The Next Run on the Bank Won't Look Like a Bank RunA productivity shock arrives. You decide its incidence and the economy's leverage.
MarketAlly Try it From: The Boom Is the Fuse