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Markets & Macro

Dollars Are for Using. Gold Is for Holding.

The private issuer, the sovereign, and the reserve manager reached the same conclusion about the dollar system from three different directions. The GENIUS Act wrote half of it into law and made the other half illegal.

MarketAlly · 2026-09-12 · David H. Friedel Jr.

Every Fix for a Stablecoin Run Ends at the Fed

The design space for making digital dollars run-proof is small, and every exit from it leads to a public balance sheet standing behind private money.

MarketAlly · 2026-09-11 · David H. Friedel Jr.

The Next Run on the Bank Won't Look Like a Bank Run

Stablecoins may solve America's Treasury-demand problem. In doing so, they could build the architecture for the next liquidity crisis.

MarketAlly · 2026-09-10 · David H. Friedel Jr.

The Boom Is the Fuse

A productivity boom and a classic credit crisis are not competing forecasts. They can be two sides of one event — and the boom can be part of the mechanism that produces the collapse.

MarketAlly · 2026-09-09 · David H. Friedel Jr.

The Salary Is Hourly Billing

The firm that bills by the hour cuts its own revenue when output per hour doubles. So does the worker on a fixed salary — one level down, same division problem.

MarketAlly · 2026-09-06 · David H. Friedel Jr.

Who Keeps the Dividend

Productivity is rising and the labor share just hit its lowest reading since 1947. The dividend is real. It is not being shared.

MarketAlly · 2026-09-02 · David H. Friedel Jr.

The Fed Has a Brake for Bubbles. It Has Never Once Touched It.

You cannot lobby a linkage and every governor we've built can be lobbied

MarketAlly · 2026-07-19 · David H. Friedel Jr.

The Gap Isn't in the Weights

Everyone is clamoring that AI will soon cost more than the engineers it replaces. Most don't understand what is unfolding

MarketAlly · 2026-07-15 · David H. Friedel Jr.

The Bill Was the Curriculum

What longevity actually delivers, why willpower keeps losing, and the uncomfortable thing about the one reset we know works.

MarketAlly · 2026-07-09 · David H. Friedel Jr.

The Dishes Were Load-Bearing

What a universal home robot actually does to the household isn't eliminate the argument. It relocates it... usually to worse ground.

MarketAlly · 2026-06-29 · David H. Friedel Jr.

Succession, Not Collapse

An IPO, a Supreme Court ruling, a wealth chart, and a brain drain are one story told four ways. America is not collapsing. It is handing off the future it built.

MarketAlly · 2026-06-19 · David H. Friedel Jr.

The AI Boom Is Being Financed With Money You Can't See

The world's central bank just put a name to it... "shadow borrowing." The same move is running through three markets at once. And the person standing at the end of the chain is you.

MarketAlly · 2026-06-13 · David H. Friedel Jr.

A Trillion-Dollar Markup

The largest IPO in history prices a trillion dollars of unproven optionality as if it were already earned.

MarketAlly · 2026-06-06 · David H. Friedel Jr.

Policy belongs to all of us

Inequality is at historic levels. The tools to understand why have been gatekept for fifty years. I built one for everyone else.

MarketAlly · 2026-06-02 · David H. Friedel Jr.

When the Builders Don't Die

For five thousand years, every dynasty ended at the same biological constraint. That constraint is about to lift.

MarketAlly · 2026-06-01 · David H. Friedel Jr.

When the Buildout Becomes the Economy

Infrastructure booms don't cause recessions. They make recessions systemic.

MarketAlly · 2026-05-26 · David H. Friedel Jr.

The Mechanism Has a Name

Naomi Klein's thesis, applied to the documentation we have right now.

MarketAlly · 2026-04-28 · David H. Friedel Jr.

We Already Ran the Experiment

The 1948–1973 economy is the control group for everything we're about to do with AI.

MarketAlly · 2026-04-27 · David H. Friedel Jr.

The CEO Should Have Been First

How AI deployment reveals power structure, not value and what would change if it didn't.

MarketAlly · 2026-04-26 · David H. Friedel Jr.

The Strike Price Illusion

The number on your option grant was calculated by an independent appraiser, blessed by the IRS, and may have almost nothing to do with what your equity is actually worth.

MarketAlly · 2026-03-31 · David H. Friedel Jr.

The Option Pool Shuffle

Every funding round quietly takes something from you before the money arrives. The people paying for it are never the ones who negotiated the terms.

MarketAlly · 2026-03-30 · David H. Friedel Jr.
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Editor's pick

When the Builders Don't Die For five thousand years, every dynasty ended at the same biological constraint. That constraint is about to lift. David H. Friedel Jr. MarketAlly

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Dig Deeper — Interactive

Read more
The Clearing Price

Set the Fed funds rate, breakeven inflation, hyperscaler capex and issuance plus more

Strikeline Try it From: The Treasury Market May Not Be Breaking... It May Be Searching for a New Price
The Alpha Half-Life

Set the adoption curve and the decay rate, then watch how long the market takes

Strikeline Try it From: When AI Eats Alpha
The Repo Loop

Build the stablecoin boom. Then pull the cash out and watch how it holds the Treasury market together.

MarketAlly Try it From: The Next Run on the Bank Won't Look Like a Bank Run
The Boom Is the Fuse

A productivity shock arrives. You decide its incidence and the economy's leverage.

MarketAlly Try it From: The Boom Is the Fuse
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